24th-ranked Bulldogs set sights on Cougars

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/02/2012 - Provo, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 24th-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs continue their quest for the top spot in the West Coast Conference as they head to the Marriott Center to square off with the BYU Cougars.

This will be just the second meeting between the programs. The only other encounter took place in the 2011 NCAA Sweet Sixteen, where BYU ended the Zags' season with a decisive 89-67 victory.

Gonzaga responded to its first conference loss to rival Saint Mary's by winning its next four times out. Its latest conquest was a 74-62 win over the Portland Pilots on Thursday which improved its overall record to 17-3 and its WCC mark to a second-best 7-1. Head coach Mark Few led his team back into the top 25 this week after a two week absence.. The Bulldogs have been doing very well in league play so far, as they have outscored their opponents by 14.0 ppg in WCC action.

Elias Harris is the Zags' leading scorer (13.7 ppg) and rebounder (8.0 rpg). Harris recorded his second-straight double-double against Portland as he finished the contest with 17 points and 10 rebounds. Freshman guard Kevin Pangos has made a name for himself in his rookie season. Pangos is second on the team in scoring (13.3 ppg) and has made 2.3 three-pointers per contest. Robert Sacre is making an impact in the middle as he is chipping in 11.6 ppg while grabbing 6.7 rpg. Gary Bell, Sam Dower, and David Stockton all are adding depth to the lineup to make the Bulldogs a very tough matchup.

Head coach Dave Rose has managed to continue winning in the post Jimmer Fredette Era. BYU enters tonight's contest at 18-6 with a 6-3 record in WCC action. The Cougars are coming off of an 80-66 loss to Saint Mary's, which was their second loss to the first place Gaels this season. BYU could not stop SMC's balanced offense as it allowed 55.8 percent shooting from the floor. BYU was held well under its average of 79 ppg in the contest. The Cougars also only dished out nine assists as a team in the loss, which is well under their fifth best nationally average of 17.9 apg. BYU leads the WCC with a 1.3 assist-to-turnover ratio.

The Bulldogs will have to find a way to stop BYU's four-headed monster which consists of Noah Hartsock, Brandon Davies, Matt Carlino, and Charles Abouo. Hartsock is second in the WCC in scoring with an average of 17.5 ppg after scoring 75 total points in his last four outings. Davies is chipping in 14.3 ppg and a team-best 7.9 rpg. Carlino is netting 12.4 ppg and a team-best 4.4 apg, while Abouo is another scoring threat and the second best rebounder for the Cougars.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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